14 DAY TRIAL // The global mobile phone sales to end users during the ongoing year are expected to top 1.214 billion units, driven mainly by the stronger sales in the Western European market and by an increase in handsets sold via the gray market, a recent report from Gartner shows. According to the research firm, the total sales will decline only 0.67 percent when compared to those registered in 2008. Moreover, the new forecast adjusts the previous one that pointed at a 3.7 percent decline in handsets sales in 2009, and suggests that we should witness a 9 percent increase in sales next year, when compared to 2009.
“Although the grey market or 'white label' is not a new phenomenon and has been generated by Chinese device manufacturers who do not have a licence to sell and manufacture devices without a valid international mobile equipment identity (IMEI), today grey-market sales are no longer limited to China,” said Carolina Milanesi, research director at Gartner. “All manufacturers will have to compete with grey-market players as they expand into emerging markets in Asia/Pacific, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America and bring a lower weighted average selling price (ASP). The grey market will affect Nokia's market share the most.”
According to Gartner, the economic turmoil has affected the buying power of users, thus extending the replacement cycles from 12 to 18 months in mature markets. However, since the world has already started to recover from the crisis, the research firm expects for the replacement cycles to return to normal in around two years, mainly driven by the launch of more smartphones that will be “aggressively priced.” Gartner also notes that it “expects second-hand sales in emerging markets and SIM-only sales globally to stabilize in 2010 and to start decreasing from 2011 as consumers feel less macro-economic pressure.”
During the ongoing year, smartphones are expected to account for 14 percent of the entire mobile phone market, registering an increase of around 23.6 percent from 2008, and they are expected to grow by 38 percent by 2013. On the other hand, the research firm points out that sales might be affected in case operators decide to couple smartphones with high flat-rate data plans. Even so, Gartner expects for the global “ASPs for enhanced phones and smartphones to decline by 3 percent in 2010.” Mobile phone markets in Latin America and the Middle East and Africa have shown weaker than expected performance during 2009, the firm also states.