14 DAY TRIAL // The waiting times for an iPhone 14 Pro are already ridiculously long, with Apple itself warning that getting your hands on a device before Christmas is nearly impossible.
But according to super-reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the demand for the iPhone 14 Pro series could soon go down because of the recession, which in turn means that the created inventory would be enough to satisfy the current demand.
However, Kuo says that Apple will see the demand for iPhones going down, with the production to be significantly reduced as well.
“The production of the Zhengzhou iPhone plant was significantly affected by laborers’ protests, so I cut the 4Q22 iPhone shipments by about 20% to 70–75 million units (vs. the market consensus of 80–85 million units),” Kuo said.
Overall, the iPhone 14 Pro production for the fourth quarter of the year will be up to 20 million units lower than expected.
“The average capacity utilization rate of Zhengzhou iPhone plant was only about 20% in November, and it’s expected to improve to 30–40% in December. Pegatron and Luxshare ICT have obtained about 10% of the iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max orders from Foxconn, respectively. But mass shipments will not be until late December at the earliest. According to the production recovery progress of the iPhone 14 Pro series, shipments in December were still significantly lower than expected,” Kuo explained.
The analyst believes that once the iPhone 15 production starts, Foxconn might lose the exclusive position of the exclusive supplier, as the tension in China could force Apple to look for more options in the long term.
Apple, however, has created large inventory, despite the dropping demand, Kuo says, and as a result, the iPhone 14 Pro stock should soon be enough to allow customers in the largest markets, including the U.S., to get a new device from the Apple Store.