14 DAY TRIAL // The smartphone market is expected to go down 3.5 percent this year, according to a recent forecast from IDC, all due to global uncertainty and weaker demand.
In other words, companies like Samsung, Xiaomi, and Apple will sell 1.31 billion smartphones this year, down 3.5 percent from the previous year.
The forecast includes a major revision from the previous numbers, as IDC originally expected the smartphone sales to go up 1.6 percent this year.
According to IDC, Apple is very likely to be the least affected by the difficult market environment, especially thanks to its tight control of the supply chain.
“The smartphone industry is facing increasing headwinds from many fronts – weakening demand, inflation, continued geo-political tensions, and ongoing supply chain constraints. However, the impact of the China lockdowns – which have no clear end in sight – are far greater,” said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC's Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers.
“The lockdowns hit global demand and supply simultaneously by reducing demand in the largest market globally and tightening the bottleneck to an already challenged supply chain. As a result, many OEMs cut back orders for this year, including Apple and Samsung. However, Apple appears to be the least impacted vendor due to greater control over its supply chain and because the majority of its customers in the high-priced segment are less influenced by macroeconomic issues like inflation. Barring any new setbacks, we expect these challenges to ease by the end of this year and the market to recover in 2023 with 5% growth.”
For Apple, IDC’s estimate of improving semiconductor inventory in the second half of the year is extremely good news, as the company will launch the next-generation iPhone in September.
The largest decline in terms of phone sales, IDC says, will take place in Central and Eastern Europe, followed by China.