14 DAY TRIAL // The iPhone X is selling below expectations, people close to the matter said, and Apple is hoping that this year’s generation would be more successful given that it includes three completely new models.
But according to a survey conducted by Loup Ventures, the iPhone intent to upgrade remains similar to the previous year, suggesting that a supercycle is rather unlikely.
Only 22 percent of the existing iPhone users plan to upgrade their devices this year, down from 23 percent the year before, but up from 15 percent two years ago.
The worse news for Apple is that only 51 percent of the respondents who said they plan to upgrade pointed to the 2018 generation as their next purchase, while 18 percent of them claimed they intend to buy an iPhone X. No less than 28 percent said they might be looking into getting the iPhone 8.
Supercycle still possible, though unlikely
Loup Ventures claims that a supercycle is still possible because the survey was conducted before the iPhone X Plus started making the rounds, but it’s hard to believe that a single large model has what it takes to sell in such high numbers to generate a supercycle.
“The good news is a more predictable iPhone growth, albeit at a lower rate, should be a positive for AAPL’s multiple. We expect investors will increasingly view the iPhone hardware business as a subscription business, given the upgrade patterns are becoming more predictable. This is also consistent with current Street expectations of 4% iPhone unit growth in FY18 and 2% in FY19,” the research firm says.
Apple is projected to unveil three different iPhone models this year, as it follows: a 5.8-inch OLED model as a direct successor to the iPhone X, a 6.1-inch LCD iPhone likely to be sold at a smaller price tag, and a 6.5-inch iPhone X Plus that would be some 25 percent bigger than the iPhone X and featuring an OLED panel.
