14 DAY TRIAL // ]Some Bad Predictions
New York Times, December 10,1903, editorial page
"...We hope that Professor Langley will not put his substantial greatness as a scientist in further peril by continuing to waste his time and the money involved, in further airship experiments. Life is short, and he is capable of services to humanity incomparably greater than can be expected to result from trying to fly....For students and investigators of the Langley type there are more useful employments."
Thomas Edison on the subject of electricity
"...My personal desire would be to prohibit entirely the use of alternating currents. They are unnecessary as they are dangerous...I can therefore see no justification for the introduction of a system which has no element of permanency and every elements of danger to life and property."
The famed surgeon Alfred Velpeau wrote in 1839:
"The abolishment of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it today. 'Knife' and 'pain' are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the consciousness of the patient. To this compulsory combination we shall have to adjust ourselves."
Where are we now?
It seemed as though we've been able to outlive, outperform and outman nearly most of the predictions set for us nearly fifty years ago and most definitely one hundred years ago. It's true that we don't yet have our very own flying cars or spaceships, but how far are we from living the Stark Trek life?
By now we should have been overpopulated and starved out, the World should have ended who knows how many times and we're still supposed to have robots working for us. There were numerous predictions about the World's food sources diminishing by the Department of Agriculture half a century ago, but somehow we've managed to still make it. Make it we did, and with style I might add.
I can't help but think of the classis Star Trek episodes that I used to watch when I was younger. "Man, how cool would it be to have one of those communicators that Captain Kirk has," I used to think to myself. Or to have some medical abilities of the future, now that would have been cool. Now that I've somewhat matured, I've taken a look at the general concepts and ideas behind the show and realized that we're actually not that far off.
For example, we use our world wide capable cell phones just like communicators (pretty soon with fuel cell technology). The only thing we're missing is the transporter? That and Bones saying "Dammit Jim, I'm a doctor not a bricklayer!" Ah, I still can't get over those classic antics of theirs.
Where am I going with this
I don't want to dwell on the idea that I'm just comparing our lives to a sci-fi show of the past, I'm trying to fully understand in what direction humanity headed. This is a recent thought of mine stemming from the many reports I've been reading about how we're running out of natural materials or how society will come to a stand still because we don't have the unified effort to pursue another energy source, or that we are all going to die from the Apocalypse? Some would say "Blasphemy!" Well the last one I've heard a few times throughout my life, I wonder when that one will happen?
You're probably wondering in which direction I'm taking this awfully long rant, so here goes. I have this eerie feeling that we live in an era where we're on the brink of exploding into the next stage of civilization. Yes, I know that's a bit much to fathom, but I've been trying to look at the big picture. Technologically, I think we're on the verge of something truly big. I don't want to sound like captain obvious here, but look at how much the Internet's been able to connect people.
If we look at the advancements in the medical field, one would soon realize that in these past ten years alone, a huge amount has been done. We've coded the human genome for Pete's sake and cloned a little sheep named Dolly. We're creating biotechnology that will reshape not only our physical attributes, but our mental capacities.
When it comes to technology we're making huge advances there too, from the smart gun that only fires by detecting the Dynamic Grip Recognition, a biometric technology embedded in its handle (check that out here), to the latest military technology which renders soldiers invisible to the naked eye.
I wanted to mention the fact that Intel's recently made a 45 nanometer chip and who knows how long it will be until the next threshold is broken, we'll have to switch to photonic processors pretty soon if these trends continue. The processing potential we'll have will be enormous in five years compared to what we have now. Powered with the latest SpaceShipOne which won the X-Prize (first non-government organized competition to launch a reusable manned spacecraft into space twice within two weeks), these technologies could soon revolutionize the way we live, the way we travel and the way we see the Earth.
Yes, this isn't anything new, this isn't a revolutionary vision I had, or a revolutionary way of thinking, it's just the insight of an everyday guy who's taken a step back to try to look at the big picture. In a world where everybody walks to their own mp3-player-theme-music, it's rare to get a collective view of what direction we're headed. But hey, this could all change in a split second if we decide to blow each other up.
Although my approach is somewhat simplistic and more geared toward the "wow, that's some pretty cool stuff we're inventing, I wonder where it'll lead" factor, I still believe that we're on the threshold of a major breakthrough, be it medically, technologically or spatially. If you have other cool little facts, or new ideas to share, go ahead and post them, I'm always up for a cool read. Anyway, back to dreaming of my flying car.
I'm sure glad we beat out this prediction though:
