14 DAY TRIAL // The latest scientific estimates on the strain that diabetes, as a disease, will place on the US healthcare system over the medium-term have revealed that costs will more than triple within 25 years, while the number of patients will reach double its current value, Reuters reports. The viability of Medicare, as well as of other government health insurance programs will be tested to the limit at that time, the American group of researchers behind the new investigation says.
“We forecast that in the next 25 years, the population size of people with diabetes – both diagnosed and undiagnosed – will rise from approximately 24 million people to 44 million people by the year 2034. We anticipate that the cost of taking care of those people – and these are direct medical costs – will triple over the same period of time, going from $113 billion today to $336 billion (per year),” told the news agency in a telephone interview Dr. Elbert Huang. He is the author of the new study, which appears in the latest issue of the scientific journal Diabetes Care. The expert is based at the University of Chicago, in Illinois.
In the case of the Medicare service alone – a health insurance program for the elderly and the disabled – yearly costs are estimated to jump to about $171 billion by 2034, as opposed to the $45 billion level they are at now. The number of patients the program will need to look after will also increase from 8.2 million to 14.6 million. The situation in the United States, diabetes-wise, is critical, with more than 11 percent of all adults suffering from diabetes. The Type II variety is the most common, and scientific studies suggest that it has a very tight link to obesity. In other words, the number of cases is a direct expression of the unhealthy life styles many American families lead.
“Diabetes is a major public health problem right now, but it's important for the country and for policymakers to have an idea of what will happen in the next couple of decades. We already have a financial crisis at hand in healthcare and we need to plan for how we can deal with those costs in the future,” Huang added. The country is currently struggling to pass more humane health legislation, which will prevent for example the medical insurance industry to deny coverage for people who are already sick. “We know from a recent trial – the Diabetes Prevention Program – we know we can prevent diabetes through diet and exercise. I do feel preventing diabetes is the first step,” the expert concluded.