14 DAY TRIAL // According to the conclusions of a new scientific study, the global climate is far more sensitive to the effects of global warming than previously estimated. The research suggests that average global temperatures may increase 4 degrees Celsius by 2100, and 8 degrees Celsius by 2200.
This scenario is almost sure to occur if our species does not stop releasing the vast amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide it does today. The new investigative report also sheds more light on the role of clouds in global warming, something that has been the subject of much debate among scientists.
Until now, it was unknown if cloud formation has a beneficial or negative impact on the emergence and progression of global warming and climate change. The team determined in its simulations that a warming world reduces the extent of the global cloud cover, which in turn promotes warming.
This is done by allowing more sunlight to enter the atmosphere, and then have its heat get trapped by greenhouse gases roaming over our planet. A denser cloud mass would reflect more solar radiation back into space, and contribute to keeping our planet cooler, Click Green reports.
The work was carried out by researchers with the Center of Excellence for Climate System Sciences at the University of New South Wales, in Australia. The lead author of the paper is professor Steven Sherwood. He and his team developed computer models to assess how cloud formation impacts climate.
“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation,” the investigator explains.
“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C,” he goes on to say.
With the new study, the lower end of that prediction is removed, so average temperatures on our planet can be expected to increase anywhere from 3 to 5 degrees Celsius if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide continue to rise at their current pace.
“Climate sceptics like to criticize climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect, but what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by those models which predict less warming, not those that predict more,” Sherwood concludes.