14 DAY TRIAL // Nearly one in five iPhone owners say they will definitely pluck a few hundreds to buy the all-new Apple Watch when it’s released, according to a survey by Credit Suisse. Coupled with other numbers in that report, the resulted end figure is 35 million watches sold in 2015 alone.
Customer surveys are by no means 100% accurate, but at the same time, they’re highly indicative of market trends, especially if done right. And we trust Credit Suisse to have done their homework.
Published by BI Intelligence, the pie chart posted above represents the purchase intent of existing iPhone 6 owners asked if they plan to buy the wearable when it’s released.
Why is Credit Suisse’s estimate so positive?
Note that 18% of those polled are certain that they’ll take the plunge, while just 11% said they’d probably do it. That “maybe” group should also result in a fair share of purchases, since it takes up 27% of the chart. Naturally, some of these numbers cancel each other. For example, the exact same amount of people (27%) said “probably not.”
But that’s the interesting bit: when all is said and done, those “definitely” 18% remain in place. That number calculates to 35 million watches sold in the first year, or about 25 million more than current analyst projections. Also worth noting is that Credit Suisse offers better reasoning than most analysts out there.
The Switzerland-based multinational financial services holding company believes Apple will take a conservatory approach to its first run of Apple Watch shipments (20 million units), similarly to the 2010 iPad launch. This prediction will probably pan out as well.