14 DAY TRIAL // Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster issued a note to clients on Monday, cutting down his sales expectations for the year. Although Munster seems to be forgetting one very important aspect, Silicon Alley Insider’s Business Insider section casually reports that he simply over-estimated online pre-orders of the device.
Munster’s explanation for being wrong on his initial forecast is, “We believe that we misgauged the online pre-orders received for the iPad starting on March 12. We originally estimated online-sales to be about 75% of all iPad sales; however, it appears that online pre-orders made up about 50% of the sales, resulting in a significant unit difference.”
MacDailyNews points out that Munster’s note was made public soon after the analyst got a glimpse of Apple’s latest press release, which acknowledged that the company had sold some 300,000 iPads in the US as of midnight Saturday, April 3. These figures included deliveries of pre-ordered iPads to customers, deliveries to channel partners and sales at Apple Retail Stores.
However, what Apple doesn’t include in the report is the number of pre-ordered 3G-capable iPads. The WiFi+3G iPad is scheduled to go on sale later this month, but customers could secure one since before the WiFi-only model's debut. With Apple holding back these figures, it is hard to predict just how many customers have made up their mind on the high-end device.
“Wrong On Launch Day, Right On Theme,” another part of Munster’s note reads. “We were overly optimistic on our launch day estimates of 600-700k, similar to the iPhone launch, when we were also too aggressive,” the analyst explains, offering clients an example from the past. “With the original iPhone we estimated sales at launch of 500k and Apple sold 270k, which concerned investors about the long-term viability of the iPhone. In CY10, we estimate iPhone sales will be 36.0m and generate 39% of Apple's revenue.”
“How the iPad launch compares to iPhone launches,” Munster says, trying to make a point. “Earlier today Apple announced the sale of 300k iPads on Sat. (4/3), the first day of sales. This is a sell-in unit number, including online pre-orders. Below is a comparison of the iPad launch with previous iPhone launches,” he says. The image in question can be viewed above (click to enlarge). “The iPad launch (300k) was slightly ahead of launch of the original iPhone (270k on launch weekend). These launches are comparable, as they were both US-only, with similarly priced products. We note that Apple sold 1.12m iPhones in the first full quarter and we now estimate Apple will sell 1.3m iPads in the Jun-10 quarter (essentially a full quarter), also slightly ahead of the original iPhone launch,” the note reads.
Besides failing to take into account the missing iPad 3G model pre-orders, Munster is said to have included more erroneous statements in his Monday note, according to MacDailyNews.