14 DAY TRIAL // When the Russian Federal Space Agency announced that it was unable to resume contact with its Phobos-Grunt mission, everyone knew that the spacecraft was going to reenter Earth's atmosphere very soon. Experts now estimate that this will occur around next weekend, on January 15.
The probe launched on November 8, and RosCosmos mission controllers lost contact with it as soon as it reached orbit. All subsequent attempts at reestablishing communications have failed, and so the probe was left in a decaying orbit.
The current estimates are not set in stone. External factors could easily influence the spacecraft's trajectory. At 14.5 tons, it's easy to understand that the fragments will spread over a large area, and that many of them could make their way to the ground, Space reports.
There are also potential environmental impacts to consider, scientists say. Phobos-Grunt carries a lot of hydrazine fuel, which is very toxic, and may pose a hazard to the population if it falls in a river that provides water to large communities.