14 DAY TRIAL // I really doubt that anybody who knows about the recent hype surrounding the EA - Take Two proposed deal doesn't have already a script for what could happen with the Grand Theft Auto franchise. And, basically, there are two different points of view: the acquisition would have a good result or a really bad one. Honestly, I haven't heard yet the voices who tend to predict the first possibility.
Unlike the people that only follow their intuition, Michael Pachter analyzes and tries to keep it real - that's his job and he generally does it really well. It just seemed natural that in the wake of the proposed deal he got up and commented upon the situation.
And, since most of the people are sure that if Electronic Arts manages to take over Take Two, Rockstar North's staff will say "bye-bye", we'll have two possible scenarios. Before discussing each of them, one thing is certain, according to Pachter: a GTA game could be released every two years and still enjoy a great success if done properly.
In the first case, if EA manages to buy Take Two, but the Rockstar staff leaves, it would still be a possible profitable deal since Electronic Arts will most likely choose to use the game engine and continue the release of Grand Theft Auto games and still generate $150 million every two years, at a 50 percent operating profit, according to Pachter. And you can see that this is an incredible pessimistic prediction, at least regarding the first releases, having in mind that GTA sells. Period.
The second and unlike possibility is that EA buys Take Two and the Rockstar staff remains with the new company. In that case, Pachter predicts that a Grand Theft Auto game would generate about $600 million every two years at somewhere around a 30 percent operating profit (presuming an "internal royalty" of 20 percent). Either way, EA will get a profit (in theory) of between $75-$180 million every two years.
However, there is a third possible story - and it could still turn into a profitable one, if EA plays its cards right. And this would happen if the company doesn't manage to buy Take Two. According to Pachter, if that would happen, EA would try to "disrupt" GTA sales by competing directly with the carjacking juggernaut. In other words, the giants will hire key Rockstar members and create their own open world, mature-themed game to compete against GTA.
And all this fuzz without anybody considering the fact that an GTA MMO has been announced by the franchise creator...