14 DAY TRIAL // The United States Air Force (USAF) is one of the first responders on a scene in case of a natural disaster. These events, which are also called “Black Swans” or catastrophic risks, tend to affect large swaths of land and cause important material damage and loss of human lives. Therefore, finding methods of anticipating and measuring them is of extreme importance. And this is precisely the goal of a new scientific investigation, which is spearheaded by a researcher at the Columbia University, PhysOrg reports.
In charge of the new work is expert Dr. Graciela Chichilnisky, who is based at Columbia's Consortium on Risk Management. This is where the study is taking place, with funding secured from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR). Chichilnisky worked with the Office in the past, and she has made a name for herself in the scientific community thanks to the impressive results she managed to obtain in the process. As part of the research, she is basically preparing a new approach to handling Black Swans that the USAF could employ in order to become more efficient in responding to emergencies.
“This research is important because it will provide solid foundations to help the Air Force and the public better prepare for the impact of catastrophic risks, communicate to experts and make decisions that can enhance national security,” the expert says. The investigation is mostly focused on probabilities and statistics, with the researcher and her team developing new tools for evaluating the economic after-effects of a hurricane, flood, landslide or tornado. Other objectives include the creation of a giving realistic prioritization tool to catastrophic events, as well as the development of guidelines for making decisions under unpredictable conditions, just before disasters strike.
“Our goal is to link our latest results, analytical tools and experimental efforts with other new theoretical and empirical strands of the literature in this area. We need to organize and protect ourselves against natural hazards in a way that increases our capabilities to anticipate, mitigate and respond to catastrophes as was never done before,” Chichilnisky says. At this point, Black Swans occur more frequently and regularly than ever, mostly because of the effects that global warming is causing on our planet. In the future, this field of research will become all the more important.