14 DAY TRIAL // The NPD Group figures for both hardware and software sales in November on the United States market are set to be released in a few days and two analysts predict that the numbers will show growth over the same period in 2008 but that the trend is not strong enough to hold over into December and January of next year.
Michael Pachter, who watches the videogames industry for Wedbush Morgan, is saying that the increase will be of about 7%, mainly because of the strong initial sales of Modern Warfare 2, the release of the record breaking New Super Mario Bros. Wii and the good performance of Assassin's Creed 2 and Left 4 Dead 2.
Meanwhile, the picture on the hardware front looks much bleaker, as in November 2008, the Nintendo Wii managed to sell 2 million units in the United States, a performance unlikely to repeat during its life time. Only the PlayStation 3 from Sony, still riding the wave of sales generated by the price cut and the launch of the Slim, is expected to show signs of growth and again beat the Xbox 360 from Microsoft.
Pachter has stated that “As 2009 draws to an end, it is clear that it will end as a horrible year for video game publishers. Notwithstanding a small rebound to sales growth in September, sales have been down seven of the last eight months, and although we expect modest sales growth in November, we think that sales are likely to track back into negative territory in December.”
Doug Creutz, from the Cowen Group, is more pessimistic and says that software could also be slow to grow in November because of the fall in PC sales, which were buoyed last year by the launch of Wrath of the Lich King expansion for the World of Warcraft MMO.