What happened to the two-year timeframe?

Jul 23, 2007 09:45 GMT  ·  By

Windows Seven, or Windows 7 if you prefer, is the next version of the Windows platform designed to replace Windows Vista. Following the business release of Vista in November 2006 and the general launch in January 2007, Microsoft has now presented an official shipping date for Windows Seven: 2010. Although initially representatives from the Windows teams revealed that Vista's successor will be made available within a two-year timeframe, the Redmond company is now playing to a different tune. And apparently, 2009 will pass without the next edition of the upcoming Windows operating system. Instead, Microsoft is now targeting a shipping date sometime in 2010.

"As part of our ongoing outreach to enterprise customers and partners, Microsoft has begun sharing plans for how they will continue to deliver value to businesses in the future, including Software Assurance customers in particular. As part of this, we are sharing some preliminary information on Windows '7' - the internal name for the next version of the Windows Client OS - as well as updates on other future Windows-related releases such as the Microsoft Desktop Optimization Pack," stated a Windows client spokesperson as cited by Mary Jo Foley.

Now, there was no secret that the next version of Windows was codenamed Windows Seven. Microsoft made sure of that long ago, in fact as early as February 2007, two weeks after Vista hit the shelves. And even before that, the Redmond company had put forward the 2009 potential release date. But now Microsoft changed its tune and it is saying 2010. Additionally, 2010 is the best-case scenario, in which everything will run out smoothly. Otherwise, if Windows Seven fails to rise up to the quality standard imposed by a launch, the product could suffer postponements, much in the same line of Windows Vista. Additional details about Windows Seven are scarce, but Microsoft has offered additional confirmation that Windows Vista will not be the last 32-bit client operating system. In this regard, Windows Seven will be offered in both 32-bit and 64-bit flavors, just like Vista.

"Microsoft is scoping Windows '7' development to a three-year timeframe, and then the specific release date will ultimately be determined by meeting the quality bar. In the meantime, Microsoft is dedicated to helping customers deploy and get the most business value from their PCs using Windows Vista and related technologies like the Microsoft Desktop Optimization Pack, and we're encouraged by the response and adoption of these products so far," the Windows client spokesperson.

Six months after Vista was made available, the operating system climbed to a share of 4.52% of the operating system market. Windows XP's domination is eroding, but not at a pace that will make Vista ubiquitous in just two years. If the adoption trend continues, Microsoft is looking at a share of approximately 20% for Vista at the beginning of 2009. In this context, XP could drop from 81.94% to 60% or even 50%. But while Vista take-up is expected to accelerate following SP1 this year, it is hard to believe that it will completely dislodge XP in two or even three years.