14 DAY TRIAL // The American space agency may not be able to bring the new ARES rockets and the Orion Crew Exploration vehicle online by 2015, as original plans predicted, a new report by the Congressional Budget Office watchdog states. According to the paper, the date could be pushed back to late 2016, under the current funding scheme. The report also shows that numerous other scenarios regarding NASA's budget have predicted that slips in schedule will occur if the money problem is not solved.
The current space exploration plan was announced in 2004 by the former US President George W. Bush, who had to cope with the Colombia disaster at the time, which was still on everyone's mind less than a year after it happened. Now, the space agency finds itself in a very peculiar situation, as it needs money for retiring the shuttles by the end of 2010, while at the same time completing the two types of ARES delivery systems and the Orion vehicle.
“If NASA's funding was maintained at $19.1 billion annually and the agency realized cost growth in its programs consistent with the average for 72 of its past programs, its planned schedules for spaceflight programs would be delayed. The initial operating capability for Ares 1 and Orion would be pushed to late 2016; the return of humans to the moon would slip to 2023; and 15 of 79 science missions would be delayed beyond 2025,” the recent report indicates.
If the shuttles do retire in 2010, the completion of the Constellation project is of paramount importance for the American space agency. Every year it misses out on translates into less contributions to endeavors such as the International Space Station, as well as the necessity to hitch a ride to orbit aboard Chinese- or Russian-built spacecraft. While the Soyuz capsule has proven itself to be very reliable, it's still a long way off from a vehicle like the shuttle.
In the new budget, the commission proposes one alternative scenario to the existing one, namely increasing the agency's budget from $19.1 billion to $23.8 billion. This would ensure that Constellation remains on schedule, that the shuttles are retired in 2010, and would also imply that the US could increase its support for the ISS until 2015.