14 DAY TRIAL // The latest news says that Ted Pollak, JPR Senior Analyst Game Industry, has come up with a revenue forecast for the virtual goods market covering the United States, South Korea and Worldwide for the years 2007 - 2012. He reckons this will be one of the hottest revenue growth sectors of the video game industry so far. The forecast is entitled: The Market for Virtual Items, Currency, Real Estate, Add-Ons, Levels, Characters, and Accounts
The revenue growth is said to account for billions of dollars in sales over the coming years. Pollak's methodology consisted of setting a baseline using revenue data obtained through industry contacts; and then forecasting the growth of various categories of virtual goods based on international growth patterns and diverse gaming cultures. The total value of goods exchanged, or "Gross Merchandise Volume" (GMV) is also addressed in the forecast on a worldwide basis.
The Market for Virtual Items, Currency, Real Estate, Add-Ons, Levels, Characters, and Accounts will include:
Main sections of the forecast:
Primary revenue to publishers Secondary revenue to publishers Secondary revenue to 3rd parties
Sub-sections for each main section:
Small Items (Including Currency) Large Items (Including Real Estate) Add-Ons/Levels Characters/Accounts
Additionally, for 3rd party revenue, Pollak estimates the worldwide breakdown of:
Business to Customer Revenue and GMV (aka Retail) and, Customer to Customer Revenue and GMV (aka Auctions) Additional Revenue available to 3rd party providers (e.g. custom items, advertising, etc.) is also forecast
Also included in the forecast for 2006 - 2011 are:
MMOG Software/Box Revenue MMOG Subscription Revenue and, Worldwide MMOG Player Base
Aside secondary market retail markup, additional data also includes commission and estimated gross margin on secondary market transactions (for publishers and 3rd parties obviously). But do you want to know what the price for this forecast is? A staggering $2500, but hey, if you want things to go on the right track, you might just need it as a developer.