14 DAY TRIAL // As far as Microsoft is concerned, Windows 7 is the future. The Redmond company's current focus is set on Windows Vista, and it is aiming to shift consumers in the same direction. At the same time, Windows XP represents a closing chapter, the operating system released back in 2001 approaching its end of availability date via the retail and original equipment manufacturer channels. Microsoft is on the verge of letting XP have its last breath of fresh air with Service Pack 3, before the coma that will lead the operating system to the end of mainstream support in April 2009 and of extended support in 2014. At the same time, Vista is getting its first refresh, one that takes a shot at softening the platform's rough edges, the "anodyne" details that have caused the death of the Wow.
And in the background of Vista SP1 and XP SP3, Microsoft is also dropping the first testing version of Windows 7, Milestone 1. However, due to the long survivability of both Windows Vista and Windows XP, following the implementation of SP1 and respectively SP3, both platforms will be around for years to come. Windows 7 is in fact bound to start sharing the Windows market share with Vista and XP when it will be released, presumably at the end of 2009. It is of course hard to predict how the intricate game between Windows editions will unfold.
In this context, Vista SP1 will be a turning point for the latest Windows version. Microsoft failed to get it right the first time, but considering the evolution of the Pre-Beta, Beta, Release Candidates and RC Refreshes for SP1, the company gives indications that it might just do right with Vista Service Pack 1. It still remains to be seen if Vista SP1 hits the spot. Comparisons of testing milestones of both XP SP3 and Vista SP1 in beta stage, at the end of 2007, weren't too favorable to Vista's service pack. Microsoft dismissed the independent benchmarking of Vista SP1 vs. XP SP3 at that time as irrelevant, since it featured two products still in development.
Considering the advance stage of evolution of XP SP3 and Vista SP1, the Redmond company can do little at this point to prepare the service packs for the future. As Windows 7 has just hit Milestone 1 and if heading for M2 in April/May 2008 with the first Beta in early 2009, the next iteration of Windows can still be prepared for the future. In this regard, market analyst firm Gartner has offered its predictions for the next five years. No less than six of the 10 forecasts made by Gartner will impact Microsoft.
"Selected from across our research areas as the most compelling and critical predictions, the trends and topics they address this year indicate a strong focus on individuals, the environment, and alternative ways of buying and selling IT services and technologies," said Daryl Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner Fellow. "These areas of focus imply a significant groundswell of change that may in turn change the entire industry."
First off, with Windows 7 Microsoft has to get ready to face an increasing presence from Apple. The Redmond company will have to fend off not only upcoming Mac OS X operating systems, but also support OEMs in taking on Apple's machines. At this point in time, XP SP3 and Vista SP1 are not able to stop the growing Mac OS X install base.
"By 2011, Apple will double its U.S. and Western Europe unit market share in Computers. Apple's gains in computer market share reflect as much on the failures of the rest of the industry as on Apple's success. Apple is challenging its competitors with software integration that provides ease of use and flexibility; continuous and more frequent innovation in hardware and software; and an ecosystem that focuses on interoperability across multiple devices (such as iPod and iMac cross-selling)," Gartner said.
Well, it's a tad late for Vista, XP might still do the trick, and Windows 7 will simply have to, but when it comes to hardware resources, requirements have to go down, not up. This because there will be a new market opening up for ultra mobile PCs. This is a territory where Microsoft will have to make Windows go head to head with Linux. The big advantage that the open source operating system has over Windows is the price. In the context of mobile devices where every dollar matters, the fact that Linux is free will weigh heavily in the balance. In order to understand this, you have to consider that the UMPCs are generally devices that cost no more than the Ultimate Edition of Vista.
"By 2012, 50 per cent of traveling workers will leave their notebooks at home in favor of other devices. Even though notebooks continue to shrink in size and weight, traveling workers lament the weight and inconvenience of carrying them on their trips. Vendors are developing solutions to address these concerns: new classes of Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level; and server and Web-based applications that can be accessed from anywhere. There is also a new class of applications: portable personality that encapsulates a user's preferred work environment, enabling the user to recreate that environment across multiple locations or systems," Gartner added.
At the end of 2006, Microsoft debuted a Windows-Linux interoperability ballet with Novell. The Redmond company has been renouncing its anti-Linux poster child position and embracing open source more and more, although not as a business model, but as a way to satisfy its clients running heterogeneous environments. Microsoft's move towards open source is a direct result reflecting the direction of its clients. Windows 7, as is the case with Windows Vista and Windows XP, will remain a proprietary operating system, that much is clear, but when it comes down to open source interoperability the next version of Windows will have to go an extra mile.
"By 2012, 80 per cent of all commercial software will include elements of open-source technology. Many open-source technologies are mature, stable and well supported. They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment. Ignoring this will put companies at a serious competitive disadvantage. Embedded open source strategies will become the minimal level of investment that most large software vendors will find necessary to maintain competitive advantages during the next five years," Gartner predicted.
The next five years will also bring with them a move toward subscription vs. license. Microsoft is already testing the subscription based model with the Office 2007 System on a limited number of markets, but at this point in time, the company has not given any indication that the strategy will also apply to Windows. In addition, there is also a general tendency for traditional software products to migrate online via either Software as a Service or Software plus Service. Microsoft is intimately bound to the desktop, so with Windows 7 the company can only go S+S, but never SaaS like Google.
"By 2012, at least one-third of business application software spending will be as service subscription instead of as product license. With software as service (SaaS), the user organisation pays for software services in proportion to use. This is fundamentally different from the fixed-price perpetual license of the traditional on-premises technology. Endorsed and promoted by all leading business applications vendors (Oracle, SAP, Microsoft) and many Web technology leaders (Google, Amazon), the SaaS model of deployment and distribution of software services will enjoy steady growth in mainstream use during the next five years," Gartner said.
Windows 7 will have to be green. With Vista, Microsoft has already taken the necessary steps to ensure that the operating system consumes less energy than XP. Besides being ecologically friendly, Vista's power savings also contribute to taking down the Total Cost of Ownership. Well, Windows 7 will simply have to go one step further and deliver a consistent reduction in energy consumption.
"By 2011, suppliers to large global enterprises will need to prove their green credentials via an audited process to retain preferred supplier status. Those organizations with strong brands are helping to forge the first wave of green sourcing policies and initiatives. These policies go well beyond minimizing direct carbon emissions or requiring suppliers to comply with local environmental regulations," Gartner added.
And last but not least, Windows 7, unlike Windows Vista, needs to win the hearts and minds of the public. Microsoft is currently hiring a Windows 7 Evangelist. And in this respect, they need not one, but a group of Steve Jobs that will push the new version of Windows. This because, while Windows has the indisputable position of monopoly when it comes to business environments, end users will start dictating the components of corporate IT infrastructures.
"By 2010, end-user preferences will decide as much as half of all software, hardware and services acquisitions made by IT. The rise of the Internet and the ubiquity of the browser interface have made computing approachable and individuals are now making decisions about technology for personal and business use. Because of this, IT organizations are addressing user concerns through planning for a global class of computing that incorporates user decisions in risk analysis and innovation of business strategy," Gartner stated.