14 DAY TRIAL // Research published by investigators at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), in Australia, suggest that online searches may be used to predict the outbreak of new epidemics or pandemics well ahead of time, before the regular channels used for issuing these warnings are put into motion.
One of the main reasons why this is possible is that many people tend to use Google to find a diagnosis for the symptoms they are experiencing before going to see the doctor. Specialized software may be used to keep track of these queries, and to alert authorities when they exceed a certain threshold.
Details of the new proposal were published in the latest issue of the esteemed journal Lancet Infectious Diseases. The QUT team says that, used retrospectively, the Internet-centered approach was able to detect instances of dengue fever and influenza epidemics up to two weeks ahead of other public health surveillance methods.
The new investigation was led by Dr. Wenbiao Hu, who is a senior research fellow with the Institute for Health and Biomedical Innovation at QUT. He explains that the new study was conducted by using digital surveillance through search engine algorithms.
Hu says that the two-week difference between surveillance methods appears because patients usually recognize symptoms and seek treatment based on online diagnostics before consulting their doctors. At the same time, doctors may take a while to centralize cases of a particular disease, before they can announce the outbreak of an epidemic. Many healthcare specialists hate starting panics, too.
“In contrast, digital surveillance can provide real-time detection of epidemics,” Hu argues. For the new study, he and his team used Google Trends and Google Insights to look for early signs of the 2005-2006 avian influenza outbreak, or bird flu, e! Science News reports.
“In another example, a digital data collection network was found to be able to detect the SARS outbreak more than two months before the first publications by the World Health Organization (WHO),” the expert adds.
“Early detection means early warning and that can help reduce or contain an epidemic, as well alert public health authorities to ensure risk management strategies such as the provision of adequate medication are implemented,” Hu concludes.