14 DAY TRIAL // All analysts are in agreement when it comes to September being a month of growth for the videogame industry over the same period in 2008, after no less than six months of decline. The NPD Group numbers are set to arrive this week but some are already looking to October and warning that this recovery might not last long.
In a note aimed at investors, Evan Wilson, who is an analyst for Pacific Crest Securities, said that “October will likely return to a modest year-over-year decline. After an initial round of checks for October's NPD data, we expect a small year-over-year decline.”
The biggest cause on the expected October drop is Activision's decision to move its blockbuster Guitar Hero 5 into September, a month earlier than previously set to launch. The impact of the move will be somewhat softened by the expected success of other titles like DJ Hero, Wii Fit Plus, Forza Motorsport 3 and Uncharted 2, but the market will still be weaker than expected. Wilson still sees an overall growth for the fourth quarter with November and December, which are strong months of sales traditionally because of the run up to Christmas, showing an increase in both hardware and software sales over 2008.
When it comes to the September NPD Group numbers, which should be out shortly, Wilson said that he expects Guitar Hero 5 from Activision to sell about 850,000 units in North America, more than the 650,000 copies that would be moved by The Beatles Rock Band from MTV Games and Harmonix.
Other analysts from EEDAR and Wedbush Morgan are expecting the star power of The Beatles to prove more interesting to gamers than the varied line up of the Guitar Hero series. We'll probably have definitive proof at some point on Friday.