14 DAY TRIAL // If the current rate of progress in the field of hunting exoplanets is any indication, then the world will be presented the first Earth-like extrasolar planet by no later than May 2011, a new analysis shows.
According to researchers, all that's needed in order for that to become a reality is the scientific community to continue making discoveries at the current pace.
Also, the analysis takes into consideration a scenario in which innovations are continuously applied to the telescopes and instruments that are used to detect faintly-lit planets around distant stars.
At this point, astronomers know about the existence of more than 450 planets, but most of these objects are Saturn- or Jupiter-class gas giant, that have no solid surface.
They are also several times larger than Earth, both in terms of mass and size. Most of them are located too close or too far from their stars, and none has been found inside a habitable zone.
These zones exist around every star, and represent the area around them where temperatures are just right to allow for the existence of liquid water.
Earth is for example located in such a habitable zone. In fact, our planet lies precisely in the middle of such an area. A few thousand miles in any direction and water would have boiled, or froze altogether.
Discovering an Earth-like planet – small, rocky, inside a habitable zone, and preferably exhibiting tectonic activity – has been a Holy Grail in astronomy for many years.
But, if we leave aside the fact that exoplanets are rare, and difficult to see, Earth-sized objects are tremendously difficult to find, especially due to their size.
At this point, the bodies are discovered either by finding the faint amounts of light they emit, or by analyzing abnormal wobbles in their parent's stars rotation.
Another method is analyzing stellar occultations, which is when the apparent brightness of a star diminishes for short periods of time, and then regains its strength.
Usually, this is a sign that an exoplanet has passed in between that star and our telescopes. But neither of these technique currently has what it takes to find objects as small as Earth.
But experts estimate that we will have these abilities by no later than May 2011. Such estimates can be made because this field of research has been progressing at a constant rate for years.
Experts calculate that all the necessary conditions for discovering an Earth-like exoplanet will be met before the end of next year, Technology Review reports.