14 DAY TRIAL // Fortune's Peter Lewis has written an article that discusses the switch to Intel, the "Osborne Effect" risk that Apple faces, and his buying advice to customers.
"Apple said last summer that it is switching to Intel microprocessors from the IBM and Motorola PowerPC chips that have powered the Mac for the past decade. The switch is a major shift in the Macintosh platform, promising more speed and processing power for desktop Macs and better battery life for Macintosh portables," Peter Lewis writes. "No, this doesn't mean Apple is switching to Windows, although a question remains on whether the Intel-based Macs will support multiple operating systems, allowing users to use Windows as well as the Mac OS. Personally, I think the Mac OS is superior to Windows, and can't fathom why anyone would want to ruin a perfectly good Macintosh by installing Windows on it."
The issue is not whether Mac OS X is superior to Windows, or that installing Windows on a Mac will ruin it... but rather that the switch in processors will make it far easier for those who need to use a Windows only application to do so on a Mac. Examples of such applications are many, ranging from smaller applications to big names such as AutoCAD and 3D Studio Max. In the end, it is not the Windows operating system itself that attracts people, but the software available on it.
"Apple initially said the changeover would start in the summer of 2006 with selected models, probably laptops at first and spreading to all desktops by the end of 2007. But lately the rumor mill says the switch will start much sooner, perhaps with a first batch of PowerBook portables in the spring," Lewis continues.
Just to be absolutely clear, Apple COE Steve Jobs said at the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), on June 6 2005, that "when we meet here again this next time next year, our plan is to be shipping Macs with Intel processors by then, and when we meet here again two years from now, our plan is that transition will be mostly complete. And we think it will be complete by the end of 2007". By June 2006 does not mean starting in June 2006, and launching in January will not put Apple ahead of schedule, but right on track.
"Apple is in a precarious spot," Lewis goes on to write, "because it doesn't want people to stop buying current Macs before the new Macs are available. (The dilemma is called the Osborne Effect, after Adam Osborne, who may have doomed his early 1980s portable computer company by promising customers that significantly improved Osborne computers were on the way. According to computer industry lore, sales of existing Osbornes dried up immediately, and the company went broke before the new, improved models were ready.)"
Not only is a simple Internet search more than informative on just how real the Osbourne Effect is, but Apple Stores and quarterly reports have been showing a steady growth in Apple Mac sales. These reports have been available for quite some time, and it seems strange to warn about Apple's possible loss in sales when their sales have been going up. At the end of the article, Peter Lewis dispenses his wisdom and buying advice...
"My advice, which Apple will not receive happily, is to put off any new Macintosh purchases at least until January 10, when the roadmap will be clearer."
So if we were to take the time perspective into account, the advice would sound like 'wait until next week before you buy a new Mac'... if you can bring yourself to wait that long.