14 DAY TRIAL // The world has been abuzz with the impending arrival of Windows 8, Windows RT and the new tablet devices set to run them. Meanwhile, Google has been pushing the Android operating system as fast as it can.
Some hope it will be enough to even the odds, so to speak, on the tablet market, where Apple's iPad continues to make short work of the competition.
Not to say that Android tablets haven't been selling well. They have. Nevertheless, the iPad is in a clear lead, accounting for around 50% of all shipments, give or take.
When Windows RT finally arrives, it should definitely weaken the iPad's position a bit, but some analysts think it will be more of a rival to Android than iOS.
All in all, while Apple's iPad will sometimes lose market share to everyone else, it will stay in the lead for years.
IDC's latest estimate (International Data Corporation) is that the iPad won't lose its lead until the year 2016, possibly not afterwards either. The research firm points out that Android and Windows sales will progress well, but various factors will prevent them from ousting iOS as the major power.
"We believe there is room in the market for others to find success, and new Android- and Windows-based products shipping in the coming months will give consumers plenty of buying options during the holiday season," explained Tom Mainelli, research director of mobile connected devices at IDC.
"Tablets running Microsoft's upcoming Windows 8 and RT operating systems, including the company's own Surface tablets, will add some momentum. However, we expect shipments to remain low in the fourth quarter as high prices and consumer confusion around these devices will limit their appeal."
To sum up, IDC doesn't expect things to take off like a rocket. While overall 2012 tablet shipments will be superior to those of 2011 (117.1 million versus 107.4 million), the fourth quarter is bound to be somewhat slow due to high prices and consumer indecision.
That said, total slate shipments are supposed to reach 261.4 million by 2016, at which point iOS will have 58-60% of the market, Android will own 30.5% and Windows will have 11%.