14 DAY TRIAL // 2009 has been a pretty miserable year for videogames up until now, with sales lagging behind those registered in the same months of 2008 in both the hardware and the videogame departments. It did not help that in spring 2008 some really big titles were released, like Wii Fit, Grand Theft Auto IV and Metal Gear Solid 4, while 2009 got far less exciting offerings for players. Still, analysts are expecting that the upcoming NPD numbers for August, which are due out shortly, will be the last ones to show a decline, with the fall months providing a clear recovery.
Michael Pachter, who is an analyst with Wedbush Morgan, is estimating that from September to December, the reduced price of the PlayStation 3 Slim, which has just debuted at retail, and of the Xbox 360 Elite, combined with the big titles coming out, including Modern Warfare 2, Halo 3: ODST and new Guitar Hero and Rock Band, will attract players back to shops and will produce an increase over 2008.
Pachter stated that “The August comparison with last year (+13%) is far easier than the 57% average for the five preceding months, and we expect this month’s sales decline will be the last we see for the remainder of 2009.” Jesse Divnich, from EEDAR, is seeing a similar trend, with September marking a turning point because of the price cuts and of the fall line up of releases.
August Pachter warns that the biggest decline in the hardware department will be for the Nintendo Wii, which might sell only half as many consoles as it did last year, while the Xbox 360 will probably see an increase in sales of about 5%. He estimates that Nintendo will probably drop the price of its device at some point in November to makes sure that the decline does not continue.