14 DAY TRIAL // Well-established analyst Shaw Wu with the Kaufman Bros. sees a “fairly healthy” demand for the iPhone in the U.S., Europe, and most of Asia Pacific. He forecasts some 6 million sold units for the December quarter (Apple’s fiscal 2009 Q1). Wu insists on pointing out that these figures significantly understate the actual demand for the iPhone, mostly because of the existence of an “iPhone gift card.” Read on for Wu's arguments.
According to a Fortune piece, Wu's 6 million iPhones are actually a downgraded estimation of 6.9 million in Q4. Nevertheless, his prognosis is still in line with Wall Street’s expectations of between 5 and 7 million, Fortune says. However, the figures could well be higher, Wu told clients in a note on Wednesday. There's just no way to know how high exactly. Here's why:
“We think there is strong reception of AAPL’s new iPhone 3G Gift Card program,” Wu writes in his Wednesday report, “where the process of giving the iPhone as a gift is greatly simplified without the need for activation and personal information. […] We estimate several hundred thousand to one million units could be impacted.”
However, Apple can’t confirm the sale of an iPhone until the customer actually activates the device with a mobile operator. “The risk here is that the customer will likely activate post-Christmas,” writes Wu. “Therefore revenue and units won’t likely be recognized until the March quarter.”
Piper Jaffray’s own Gene Munster has taken a shot at iPhone sales. This analyst has also taken into consideration sales through Wal-Mart, who plans on carrying iPhone units three days after Christmas. Munster reveals that Wal-Mart is capable of shipping as many iPhones as Apple does through its own stores.
“Our analysis begins with a simple count of 3,500 U.S. Walmart stores and 208 U.S. Apple retail stores,” Munster told clients on Tuesday. “We are modeling for Apple to sell 45m iPhones in CY09; we assume that 30% (13.5m) are sold in the U.S., and one third of U.S. iPhones (4.5m) are sold at Apple retail stores. In other words, we believe the average Apple store will sell about 22k iPhones in CY09. In order for all 3,500 U.S. Walmart stores to sell as many iPhones as the Apple retail channel (4.5m), each store would need to sell 1,284 iPhones in CY09, or 6% of the total annual volume of each Apple retail store. We believe a Walmart store would likely sell a small fraction of the units that an Apple store would, but we also believe that 6% on a unit-basis is achievable.”
Lastly, Morgan Stanley’s Kathryn Huberty cut her Q1 estimate Wednesday to 4 million iPhones, down from 4.5 million. Huberty trusts Apple to move a maximum of 14 million by the end of 2009.