14 DAY TRIAL // As the past is getting ready to swallow 2011 and the present keeps moving inexorably towards 2012 another analyst has offered some information on the trends that he expects to become the norm during next year.
Speaking to IndustryGamers David Cole, who is watching the video game industry for DFC intelligence, has stated, “There is likely to be a shakeout and consolidation among mobile and digital focused providers. The big story here is likely to be failure as the market is being flooded with far more products than current purchase behavior can support.”
The analyst also believes that video game publisher Electronic Arts, who has been investing a lot into the digital space in the last few years, is well positioned to take advantage of the shift and could capitalize on its investments.
A lot depends on the long term success of the recently launched Star Wars: The Old Republic, which is currently performing very well but might lose significant numbers of players just after the one month free subscription expires.
Cole added, “The biggest game of all-time, World of Warcraft, will need to reinvent its business model in the face of subscriber declines. Even prior to the launch of EA’s Star Wars MMOG, World of Warcraft usage is starting to show its first major declines. How Blizzard responds to these downturns will be a major indicator of how online products can be managed in their downcycle.”
Blizzard is preparing to launch a new expansion, called Mists of Pandaria, during late 2012 but it’s unlikely that this will offer long term players too many reasons to stay with the game.
Rumors have been saying that Blizzard is considering adopting the free-to-play model but nothing official has been announced so far.
Blizzard has another MMO project, named Titan, in development and when it launches World of Warcraft might undergo a radical change.