14 DAY TRIAL // Games industry analyst Michael Pachter isn’t confident in Nintendo’s predictions for the sales of its upcoming Wii U home console, especially the amount of games it hopes to sell until spring, saying that the expectation of four games purchased by each new console owner is “unrealistic.”
Nintendo presented its financial earnings and forecast yesterday, confirming that its situation isn’t that good but emphasizing that it predicts a strong release for the Wii U next month around the world.
The Japanese company believes that it’ll be able to sell 5.5 million units by spring, coupled with 24 million games. These expectations, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter, are unrealistic.
"Nintendo has guided to Wii U hardware sales of only 5.5 million units in FY:13, below the 6 - 7 million that we had previously expected. In addition, guidance for 24 million Wii U software units in FY:13 implies an attach rate of over four games, which we view as highly unrealistic given pricing and release slate," Pachter told GamesIndustry.
Nintendo needs to rival not just current home consoles but also a variety of tablets and other devices, according to the analyst.
"Wii U will fight for holiday wallet share with the existing consoles (which have the bulk of their most compelling releases in the December quarter), Amazon's Kindle Fire HD, and Apple's iPad Mini, among a slew of other devices."
Pachter does note, however, that there are quite a lot of great games coming to the Wii U, but highlights that once the hardcore gamers buy them, long-term sales won’t be so good.
"The launch schedule is better than we had initially expected, with notable launch day titles including Activision Blizzard's Call of Duty: Black Ops II, EA Sports' FIFA Soccer 13, Nintendo's New Super Mario Bros. U and Nintendo Land, and Ubisoft's Assassin's Creed III and ZombiU. However, demand will probably wane once Nintendo's core fan base has purchased the first 5 - 6 million units, negatively impacting long-term hardware and software sales as well," he added.
The Nintendo Wii U is out on November 18, in North America, and November 30, in Europe, so it’s going to be interesting to see just how well the new home console performs.