14 DAY TRIAL // We are just a few short days away from the end of 2011 and the beginning of a new year and analysts are jumping at the chance to prove their mettle by predicting the big trends of the coming 365 days.
Scott Steinberg, who is an analyst and a marketing expert at TechSavvy Global, told IndustryGamers that, “Expect even more layoffs and mergers from game companies in the coming year, especially from the big companies, as publishers adapt to an ever-shifting commercial landscape that looks far different from the one they previously enjoyed core competencies in. As such, companies with a strong stable of annualized franchises, branded properties and money in the bank will work to actively reposition themselves to meet these challenges by rightsizing and acquiring current market leaders in areas where they lack in-house skills.”
This will probably mean that publishers like Ubisoft and Activision Blizzard might create a larger presence in the free-to-play and social gaming spaces, where up until now Electronic Arts has been the leader when it comes to big companies.
Steinberg also believes that smaller game studios will have a good chance of performing well as long as they manage to deliver impressive, innovative projects.
Unfortunately, this means that medium sized studios and games that lack anything to stand out of the crowd might have a tough time during 2012.
Steinberg also talked about digitally distributed games, adding, “For some traditional gaming companies, mobile and social games now provide a healthy share of revenue – in some cases, as much as 20-30% of all returns. But starting in 2012, and over the next three or four years, we're going to see an increasingly large share of sales and profits come from microtransactions, digital downloads, in-app purchases and other Internet-based channels.”
This will probably mean a reduction in the traditional retail space which might again hurt big companies and allow smaller players to do well.