Disappointing GTA Sales Leave Analysts Wandering

Grand Theft Auto IV was a real head-turner back in 2008 when it was launched, but the spinoffs and additional DLC that were made this year just didn't rise to the same results. Ben Schachter, a Broadpoint AmTech analyst, believes that GTA has reached its milking quota for now, as The Lost and Damned and GTA: Chinatown Wars sales proved to be well below what had been expected of them. According to Industry Gamers, Schachter believes that, "Given the strength of GTA IV in 2008, the question may seem misplaced, but our concern is that the very highly rated new GTA content for Xbox as well as PSP and DS did not perform up to expectations in 2009."

"Now, we very clearly understand that these do not represent 'true' new GTA titles," he adds. "However, the fact is that these were compelling titles, attractively priced, and reasonably well-promoted, yet they fell relatively flat." The way Schachter sees it, the resulting sales output of the additional GTA content "raises questions about the strength of TTWO's crown jewel."

While Take-Two Chairman Strauss Zelnick stated that he believed that the company could be just as profitable in a GTA year and in the time frame between additional releases in the franchise, Broadpoint AmTech's analyst isn't quite as confident.

"The bombshell is that 2010 is also going to be unprofitable. Furthermore, even when one excludes a loss of $30-$35 million from the disastrous MLB contract, TTWO will still be unprofitable," Schachter says. "Given 2010's solid line-up of TTWO's top franchises (BioShock 2, Mafia II, Max Payne 3, and Red Dead Redemption), many will be left wondering how the company will ever be profitable in a non-GTA year. We share that concern."

If he is right, things seem incredibly grim for the publisher. Not only did the company announce last week that it had no intention of rushing the production of a future GTA, but, if franchises like Bioshock, Mafia and Max Payne put together won't be able to make the company profitable, then Take-Two might be spiraling down towards total disaster.