14 DAY TRIAL // It’s no longer a secret that Windows Phone is declining these days, and a new forecast coming from IDC estimates that the drop will continue until Microsoft’s mobile platform eventually settles at 0.5 percent market share and 7.2 million sold units in 2016.
IDC’s latest report estimates a growth of “just” 1.6 percent in worldwide smartphone shipments these days, down from the 10.4 percent growth in 2015, which, according to the company, is only happening because of the decline in developed regions this year.
"Growth in the smartphone market is quickly becoming reliant on replacing existing handsets rather than seeking new users," said Jitesh Ubrani, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers.
"From a technological standpoint, smartphone innovation seems to be in a lull as consumers are becoming increasingly comfortable with 'good enough' smartphones. However, with the launch of trade-in or buy-back programs from top vendors and telcos, the industry is aiming to spur early replacements and shorten lifecycles. Upcoming innovations in augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) should also help stimulate upgrades in the next 12 to 18 months."
Specifically, Android will sell 1.2 billion phones this year, IDC estimates, which will guarantee a market share of 85.3 percent. iOS, on the other hand, will reach 203.8 million phones, which equals a share of 13.9 percent, while Windows Phone continues to be the third platform in the charts with 7.2 million sold phones and a 0.5 percent market share.
2020 estimates
As far as short-term estimates are concerned, IDC believes that Android will hold a share of 85.7 percent in 2020 thanks to 1.5 billion sold phones, while Apple will increase the number of shipments to 249.2 million and will reach a share of 14.2 percent.
Things won’t improve too much for Windows Phone over the next four years, as Microsoft’s mobile platform will sell a total of 1.7 million devices in 2020 for a share of 0.1 percent.
“IDC anticipates further decline in Windows Phone's market share throughout the forecast. Although the platform recently saw a new device launch from one of the largest PC vendors, the device (like the OS) remains highly focused on the commercial market. Future device launches, whether from Microsoft or its partners, are expected to have a similar target market,” the report shows.
And there’s a big chance that IDC is right with this one, as Microsoft is no longer willing to focus too much on the consumer market, but invest big in enterprise. The upcoming Surface Phone, which could see daylight in spring 2017, is likely to be specifically tailored for the enterprise, although rumor has it that a consumer-oriented version could also launch.
All in all, one thing is clear: Android will continue to dominate the mobile market over the next four years, iOS will maintain basically the same level, while Windows Phone will go on with the struggle to survive.