The stage is balanced between two possibilities

Jul 17, 2015 12:21 GMT  ·  By

It's Friday and the 13th stage of the competition is taking place, which means there's a double dose of bad luck waiting to get some of the riders who remain engaged in the 2015 edition of the Tour de France, both in the real world and in its virtual form.

After some hard mountain action, the riders are getting ready for something a little less stressful, although this does not mean that any rest will be available.

This is described by the ASO organizers as a transition stage, which means that there are no major climbs to deal with but that the entire 198.5-kilometer route is filled with constant up and downs.

This is the kind of terrain sprinters hate because it makes them waste energy and climbers see as not hard enough to deploy their own core abilities.

The fact that it comes after three big stages in the Pyrenees also means that it is the best possible moment for a solid breakaway, made up of solid but non-threatening riders, to try and get a win.

Of course, the teams of the favorites might choose to control the race and stop any such move, but they might want to save their energy for the weekend.

Prediction: In PCM 2015, a breakaway will take the win. In the real world, the result is hard to predict because of the profile of the stage, with my money on Degenkolb from Giant.

Yesterday, Rodriguez managed to take his second stage, but he had to basically drop any pretense that he is fighting for the Yellow Jersey.

From mountain range to mountain range

I took it easy, trying to get Felline into the breakaway and keeping the rest of my riders safely in the peloton, conserving fast disappearing energy.

My breakaway rider failed to make an impact, mostly because Tony Martin was there to provide the attacks and to move for the line before the others could respond.

But he was unable to stay away in the finale and Rodriguez, who is an excellent puncheur, managed to make good use of his own team and won the stage.

The group of favorites, which included Mollema, arrived nine seconds later, and I got to keep my sixth place position, which is not bad considering that my daily form was a dreadful -5.

Here's how the unlucky stage actually played out in PCM 2015: