14 DAY TRIAL // Apple’s anniversary iPhone X will hit the shelves on November 3 (if no other delay takes place), and everyone seems to be super-optimistic about how the new model would sell, with some analysts forecasting record sales and a completely new upgrade cycle driving people away from older models.
But as far as Deutsche Bank analyst Sherri Scribner is concerned, that’s not going to happen. The iPhone X will indeed sell well, she said, just not that well, explaining that some investors might be way too optimistic about the new model.
In a discussion with CNBC, the analyst explained that Apple investors believe that the iPhone X could help achieve results similar to those in the fiscal year 2015, when the company recorded revenue exceeding expectations by $31 billion.
iPhone X struggles
But according to Scribner, it all comes down to simple math to determine that reaching this figure is not at all easy for Apple.
To exceed expectations by $31 billion this fiscal year, Apple needs to ship 290 million iPhone units, which means sales must beat those in 2015 by no less than 59 million. But at this point, analyst put iPhone sales in the current fiscal year at approximately 245 million units, so while Apple could beat 2015 figures, yet without meeting the expectations.
The iPhone X itself, however, could fail to generate such a significant growth for Apple, mostly because of the limited supply. Apple is said to be struggling to make enough units available for the November 3 launch, but due to a number of issues, including production struggles with the cameras and the displays, the company might even be forced to push the beginning of sales back to December.
The analyst says Apple reaching the 290 million sold units figure is “highly unlikely,” estimating that instead the company could record a decline, similar to the fiscal year 2016 when it introduced the iPhone 6s lineup.