14 DAY TRIAL // Windows phones aren’t expected to recover anytime soon, so it’s up to Android and iOS to push the mobile world forward.
And according to a forecast provided by IDC, this is exactly what it’s going to happen until 2020, as both Android and iOS will continue their growth. And yet, it won’t be easy for Apple, IDC says.
First and foremost, the estimated market share and sales. Android is projected to sell around 1.2 billion devices this year for a market share of 85 percent, but the platform will keep gaining in the coming years to eventually reach 1.46 billion sold units in 2020 and a share of 85.4 percent. This leads to a year-over-year growth of 4.2 percent, IDC says.
On the iOS front, analysts estimate that Apple will sell a little over 206 million iPhones this year, which equals to a share of 14.3 percent. In 2020, the platform is expected to reach 14.2 percent share, with sales totaling 243 million, which represents a YoY growth of 2.5 percent.
The iPhone struggle
But although both platforms would improve their shares in the coming years, Apple is expected to have a hard time dealing with Android devices and with Google’s own investments in the hardware business.
“All signs point to 2016 being the first full year of declining shipments for Apple's iPhone. The iPhone 7 and 7 Plus have done well, but three quarters of year-over-year declines, as well as a projected fourth quarter decline by IDC, will account for negative growth. By no means is this doomsday for Apple in this category and 2017 marks the tenth year of iPhone, so it is hard to believe Apple doesn't have something big up its sleeve,” IDC says.
“Challenges of low-cost competition remain, and Google getting into the premium space certainly doesn't make things any easier. Look for Apple to mix things up with whatever version(s) they bring to market in the coming year to hopefully rebound shipment growth.”
And yet, Google’s continued investments in hardware aren’t necessarily the best news for the other companies building Android phones, IDC points out. This is a move similar to Microsoft’s with the Surface lineup, as both are becoming rivals for its own partners.
IDC, however, believes that in the case of Google, OEMs don’t have too many options because of the “lack of viable mobile platform alternatives,” so the only thing they should do is build better phones whose sales won’t be impacted by Google’s own products.
