The analysis firm Lazard Capital Markets has revealed a study which shows that World of Warcraft, the biggest subscription based MMO in the gaming world, could lose between 900,000 and 1.6 million active players in late December, when Star Wars: The Old Republic from developer BioWare and publisher Electronic Arts will be launched.
Lazard cites data which it has gathered in conjunction with Peanut Labs, using a sample of 381 online consumers who are familiar with both of the MMOs.
More than half of them are saying they have grown tired of playing
World of Warcraft and about the same percentage plan to buy The Old Republic when it launches, with another 38 percent of them saying that they might get it some time later.
33% of the gamers surveyed who are regular World of Warcraft players have also said that they are planning to return to the game when the Mists of Pandaria expansion is launched in late 2012.
Lazard Capital Market says the impact of Star Wars: The Old Republic will be huge on Activision Blizzard and has downgraded the rating of the company from “buy” to “neutral”.
In the last three months World of Warcraft has lost about 800,000 subscribers although it's not clear whether this is because of recent crack down on gold sellers and buyers in the game or because high level players lack any new content to explore.
Star Wars: The Old Republic is set to arrive on December 22 all over the world and the game mixes the trademark storytelling mechanics of BioWare with the MMO structure that is familiar to gamers who spent time with World of Warcraft.
Electronic Arts has already said that it does not want to beat World of Warcraft and that it's game will make a profit as long as it manages to attract a stable player base of 1 million.
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