Forget Windows XP (SP3 or no SP3), not to mention Windows 2000 – don't wait for Windows 7 – deploy Windows Vista Service Pack 1 now – or Vista SP2 at the latest before mid-2009 – this is the Microsoft migration scenario in the context of the platform's evolution, with an emphasis on "don't wait for Windows 7." Fact is that the Windows client is evolving at a faster pace than the market can keep up with. XP, Vista and Windows 2000 are already saturating the operating system market, and Microsoft is done cooking Windows 7, feature-wise, and is perfecting the OS for Release Candidate, RTM and GA. Windows 7 is just at one month after the release into public Beta (a development milestone that is no longer accessible, with Microsoft discontinuing downloads altogether today), but already the next iteration of the Windows client is impacting all its precursors, with Vista bound to attract the heaviest blows, in terms of sales.

As far as home users are concerned, Windows 2000 is virtually dead and buried with a usage share of just over 1%. Vista managed a usage share of over 22%, with XP accounting for a triple audience. In just under a year, the market shares of Vista and XP will begin to erode with the launch of Windows 7. For many XP users that have been waiting for the next version of Windows, and continued waiting even after the advent of Vista, Windows 7 could indeed be the answer they are looking for. Skipping Vista is no longer a scenario dependent strictly on the end users' incapacity to renounce the comfort of XP, but a palpable reality, with Vista R2, Windows 6.1, or Windows 7 now on the horizon.

Microsoft's “Don’t wait for Windows 7” refrain is also valid for home users, but what the company is really trying to drive home is the need to get off XP, even with Service Pack 3, and off of Windows 2000, a move that is long overdue by any standards. Still, the Redmond company fails to take into consideration one aspect. New Windows Vista users, fresh from recent XP upgrades, will be resistant to coughing up money anytime soon for a move to Windows 7, even with discounted Win 7 upgrade prices. While for XP users upgrading to Windows 7 is the obvious answer, for some Vista customers an upgrade is bound to come only with Windows 8 at the latest, especially with generalized trends for consumers to cut back on spendings and protect their financial resources. Businesses however, and especially large corporations, have to look at Windows 7 in a whole other light.

Gavriella Schuster, senior director, Product Management for Windows Client explained that for companies, Microsoft recommends that “you use what you are running today to make the right decision for your business.

• If you are running Windows 2000 in your environment: Migrate your Windows 2000 PCs to Windows Vista as soon as possible. Extended support for Windows 2000 ends Q2 2010, and as a commercial customer, you may soon find your business’s critical applications are unsupported.

• If you are in the process of planning or deploying Windows Vista: Continue your Windows Vista SP1 deployment. If you’re really in the early stages or just starting on Windows Vista, plan to test and deploy Windows Vista SP2 (on target to RTM Q2 2009). Moving onto Windows Vista now will allow for an easier transition to Windows 7 in the future due to the high degree of compatibility.

• If you are on Windows XP now and are undecided about which OS to move to: Make sure you taken into consideration the risk of skipping Windows Vista, which I am discussing below. And know that deploying Windows Vista now will make the future transition to Windows 7 easier.

• If you are on Windows XP now and are waiting for Windows 7: Make sure you take into consideration the risks of skipping Windows Vista, and plan on starting an early evaluation of Windows 7 for your company using the beta that’s available now. Testing and remediating applications on Windows Vista will ease your Windows 7 deployment due to the high degree of compatibility.”

While for home users moving to Windows 7 is synonymous with a simple upgrade, business users have to deal with operating system migrations, hardware infrastructure refresh cycles, and application and service compatibility issues. Microsoft warned that there were a series of risks for corporate clients looking to ride XP for all it’s got, skip Vista altogether, and move straight to Windows 7. The past week, Forrester indicated that 15% of IT decision makers are planning to migrate to Windows 7 and skip Vista. Windows XP is still top dog, being installed on over 70% of computers with Vista on par with Windows 2009 at 10%.

“We want these customers to understand the following considerations, so they are not surprised later on: You may find your company in situations where applications are no longer supported on Windows XP and not yet supported on Windows 7. You will want to take time to evaluate Windows 7 just as you evaluate any new operating system for your environment prior to deployment (see deployment realities above). As Windows 7 is planned to be released in about 3 years after Windows Vista, the total period that many customers will likely be waiting prior to deploying Windows 7 in their environment will likely be in the range of 5 years after Windows Vista release,” Schuster added.