Will Apple's Leopard Bite Into Windows Vista?

Is Windows Vista's market share threatened by Mac OS X Leopard? Not even by a long shot. Let me explain. Currently, Apple has scheduled the release of Mac OS X Leopard sometime in March, with an actual date yet undefined. And there is a tendency to compare the world's most advanced and still advancing operating system to the Wow of Windows Vista. One rhetoric question that I came across was related to the vulnerability of the Windows Vista market share in relation to the upcoming Leopard release.

Currently, Windows Vista is attributed to only 0.18% of the desktops worldwide. The key figure in that number is 0. Of course, this aspect will change. Windows Vista has no way to go but up. And upward it will dislocate Windows XP's market share. I find it very hard to believe that hard core Windows or Mac users will swap operating systems.

Windows Vista will have a couple of months' worth of advance before Mac OS X Leopard will start biting. And the fact of the matter is that Apple has been on an ascendant trend, at least with Intel based Macs that have doubled their market share from September 2006 until January 2007. But Leopard will have only a superficial impact over Vista at best.

In this context, we could consider the way Windows XP's share will be affected by the concomitant presence of Vista and Leopard. Because, saturating over 85% of the operating system's market, Windows XP's share will begin to erode. Only time will tell how the crumbs from XP's table will be divided between Vista and Leopard. Currently, the rate of Windows Vista's adoption is inferior to that delivered by Windows XP in the launch month. However, Leopard will not find Windows Vista so close to 0%. But Vista's share will also not be vulnerable, due to the simple fact that it will not grow to a significant percentage before Leopard's release. Windows XP is the true target of Apple. That much is sure. Just look at Apple's strategy for Mac OS X, presenting the operating system as an alternative to Vista.