14 DAY TRIAL // Within less then three decades, the premium wine industry in the United States could suffer devastating blows, a new study from Stanford University investigators explains. Global warming will transform terrains that are now appropriate for growing premium grapes into unusable stretches of land.
By 2040, only around half of the high-value Northern California land suitable for growing premium wine grapes will remain available for exploitation. The other half will become unusable, and the percentage will increase over the following decades.
Experts say that the situation could in fact become even worse. The statistics the team produced are in fact based on conservative estimates, which take into account an average global temperature increase of just 2 degrees Fahrenheit.
But the world may very well warm by 2 degrees Celsius by that time. If this happens, the cascade of events that would be set in motion would lead to the creation of several environmental feedback loops, that would contribute to even further temperature increases.
Interestingly, the Stanford team explains, some of the cooler parts of Oregon and Washington state could become very well suited for growing premium wine grapes as a result of global warming.
Details of the new research appear in a new scientific paper, published in the June 30 issue of the esteemed scientific journal Environmental Research Letters. By the end of the century, more than 80 percent of all premium wine grape acreage in the US may become unsuitable for growing the plants.
“Our new study looks at climate change during the next 30 years – a time frame over which people are actually considering the costs and benefits of making decisions on the ground,” says expert Noah Diffenbaugh.
He holds an appointment as an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford, and also as a center fellow with the Woods Institute for the Environment, also at the university.
“There will likely be significant localized temperature changes over the next three decades. One of our motivations for the study was to identify the potential impact of those changes, and also to identify the opportunities for growers to take action and adapt,” the expert adds.
“World governments have said that to reduce the negative impacts of climate change, global warming should be limited to an increase of 1 degree Celsius,” he says. However, that is not likely to happen, due to delays and arguments at crucial meetings meant to develop a solution.
The US National Science Foundation (NSF), through a CAREER award given to Noah Diffenbaugh, supported part of this research effort.