14 DAY TRIAL // Among the many interesting developments of 2009, few are as noteworthy as the spectacular marketing performance of netbook systems. Designed as entry-level mobile PCs aimed specifically at little else besides web surfing and document viewing, netbooks have seen a popularity surge so great that total sales grew by 103% year-over-year in 2009. Revenues rose by 72% and prices have started dropping. Nevertheless, a recent analysis made by DisplaySearch indicates that 2010 will see netbook sales slowing down considerably.
DisplaySearch suggests that ultra low voltage (ULV) laptops are becoming more and more popular and their greatest advantage is their price. Already, there are netbooks whose prices are dangerously close to those of entry-level notebooks with much greater performance capabilities. The study shows that ULV laptop prices are starting to slip under the $500 threshold, which will naturally prompt end-users to buy such systems instead of the much less capable netbooks with equivalent prices.
The main feature of the notebooks supporting this idea is the fact that, despite offering much better performance, their battery life is almost or just as good as that of netbooks.
"While mini-notes offer lower ASPs and are thinner and lighter than notebook PCs, the performance of larger notebook PCs continues to improve while prices continue to steadily decline, increasing the performance gap while narrowing the price gap," said DisplaySearch director of notebook research John F. Jacobs. "For 2010, we expect further erosion of [average selling prices] across almost every portable computer segment. However, unit growth should be sufficient to offset ASP decline, leading to flat [year-over-year] revenue for the portable PC market."
The news isn't exactly terrible, as manufacturers are only expected to suffer a revenue hit of 1% and netbooks will still perform well on the market. The total netbook shipments are still expected to grow in 2010, although only by 20% year-over-year.
"Mini-notes continue to be a significant piece of the notebook PC pie, in terms of both units and revenue. However, our long-term outlook is that the mini-note share of the notebook PC market has stabilized, and will remain at approximately 20 percent through 2011 before starting to erode" Jacobs stated.