14 DAY TRIAL // While it may seem obvious what technologies or trends are the most hyped at the moment, a nice color chart can't hurt either. Research firm Gartner provides such a chart, called “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies,” every year, showing which technologies are the most talked about and how far they are from mainstream adoption. This year's high fliers are cloud computing and e-books, while online video is close to the bottom of the hype machine, and microblogging, aka Twitter, heading south as well.
In its 14th year of existence, the hype chart plots the progression of a technology or trend from when it first becomes available to mainstream adoption going through the “peak inflated expectations” all the way down to the dramatically named “trough of disillusionment” and finally reaching the “plateau of productivity.” There are quite a few “emerging” technologies on the 2009 chart, some more than 10 years off from going mainstream, others set to get there in the next couple of years.
The hottest trends right now, according to the report, are cloud computing and e-books, which are at the top of expectations but are still two to five years from mainstream adoption, having to go through the impeding disillusionment phase. Technologies that have already tipped over the peak include microblogging, which is headed for backlash before emerging as a useful tool.
Online video has had its heyday and is still facing even more negative reports before maturing. Web 2.0 on the other hand has made it through the roughest times and is now a mere two years from becoming widespread, despite being also two years from the mainstream in 2006 in the same report. While offering some entertainment value and providing PR teams with even more fodder with terms like “context delivery architecture” the report isn't exactly a business analysis tool and shouldn't be treated as such.
