Transitioning Towards a Carbon-free World

With the depletion of the world's fossil fuel reserves staring us in the face, we need to realize that we are now heading towards the Big Transition, which will seriously test our resolve, a new report shows.

According to many analysts, the Peak Oil event and the subsequent drop in resources are the main events that take center stage this century. This happens because they are critical to our civilization.

The world at this point basically runs on oil, natural gases and coal, and depriving it of its fuels now seems unimaginable. But change will have to come, simply because these resources are running out.

This will produce major ramifications, affecting the future of our industry-centered civilization, and threatening our very survival.

Recently, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil conducted a survey, which included 100+ of the world’s most respected petroleum geologists. The conclusions of this study are very interesting.

The experts say that the Oil Peak will be reached sometime between 2010 and 2020. The event will not be a peak per se, and will not resemble the familiar Gaussian curve.

“The ‘peak’ is more likely to look like a bump on a long ridge than the classic bell-shaped curve,” the geologists agreed. On the other hand, some experts say that Oil Peak event already took place.

The Export Land Model developed by Dallas petroleum geologist Jeffrey J. Brown estimates that only nine years should pass, on average, between when an oil producer reaches its peak capacity, and the time when it stops delivering crude altogether.

Various studies by research groups around the world also showed that Peak Oil will not be prevented by supplementing lack of oil production with more natural gas and coal, or oil from unconventional sources, such as tar sands.

Deepwater oil production is not the solution either, according to analysts at the Washington-based PFC Energy. They only provide temporary relief, spanning one or two decades max.

The conclusion of the new report, which can be read here, is simple: the “industrial civilization faces multiple, converging shortages in the supply of energy across the spectrum of traditional hydrocarbon-linked reserves.”

This convergence is expected to narrow down considerably by the years 2025-2030. This issue is augmented by population growth and increased demand, especially from China and India.

The only possible solution to this problem is investing heavily and aggressively in cleaner, renewable sources of energy, while at the same time promoting projects that increase our resilience.

Investing in this high-tech industry will also create hundreds of thousands of jobs around the world, which will help stabilized an already-battered global economy.