Says industry analyst

Mar 25, 2009 09:41 GMT  ·  By

It takes some courage to say that the very industry that you are being paid to watch and try to predict might soon (on a historic scale) be facing a significant extinction event. But Michael Patcher, who is an analyst with Wedbush Morgan, is predicting that the current home console generation is the last one and that the big manufacturers will not invest the money needed to create follow-ups to their current machines.

Patcher spoke at the GamesBeat 2009 Game Conference, which is taking place in San Francisco. There, he was part of a panel that also featured analysts Colin Sebastian from Lazard Capital Markets and David Cole, representing DFC Intelligence.

Michael Patcher was the most blunt in his statements, saying that “I think we've seen the last generation of consoles,” before adding that manufacturers and game publishers “are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720. The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it.” One good example is Sony, which has said that it would wait for the PlayStation 3 to be profitable before thinking of another gaming console. Profitability for the current gen console from Sony might only appear after 2013.

Patcher believes that we might see small improvements in some of the components used by the consoles, like bigger hard drives, and that Nintendo will likely introduce a High Definition version of the Nintendo Wii, which will also feature a hard drive.

Colin Sebastian disagreed and stated that, in his opinion, there would be another console generation, set to arrive around 2012. David Cole also believes that we will see the Xbox 720 and the Nintendo Wii2, mainly because these companies will be pressured by the fact that, in 2012, the PlayStation 3 will be dominating videogame sales. So, enjoy your current console and the games you get for it, 'cause it might be the last gaming device you will ever buy.