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The Windows Vista Reality

Has Steve Ballmer got a reality check?

By Marius Oiaga, Technology News Editor

19th of February 2007, 11:24 GMT

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The commercial availability of Windows vista has generated an entirely different view for Microsoft than the Redmond Company's initial perspective over the market performance of the operating
system. And it took just the first two weeks on the shelves. But these two weeks contradicted Microsoft's forecasting for Windows Vista. While the Redmond Company has predicted that Vista will outperform the adoption rate of Windows XP by 2 to 1, the fact of the matter is that Vista has not been exactly flying off the shelves.

"We think in the next three months we'll probably sell five times as many copies of Windows Vista as we ever did Windows XP in the equivalent period of time -- I'm sorry, Windows 95. We'll probably go double what we did with Windows XP. And while some of that is the increase in the size of the installed base, a lot of that is the enthusiasm that we've had a chance to see and feel during this beta period," remarked Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft Corporation, at the Partner Luncheon and Press Conference, Windows Vista and Microsoft Office 2007 Worldwide Availability, New York, N.Y. on January 29, 2007.

"We have over half a million companies that we'll work with around the globe. You'll hear today from the biggest of those partners. But the opportunity that we see to drive the technology industry, to drive PC sales, to drive new value from the consumer market to the business market is huge," Ballmer added at that time.

Two weeks after that event, the same Steve Ballmer, only in a different location Financial Analyst Briefing - New York City, Thursday, February 15, 2007 had a change of heart and presented different expectations of Windows Vista. Ballmer jumped from "double what we did with Windows XP" to "revenue forecasts I've seen out there for Windows Vista in fiscal year '08 are overly aggressive."

"I've looked at some of the models and reports, et cetera, about our business and what people think it looks like, and I'm really excited on how enthusiastic everybody is about Vista. I, too, am very enthusiastic about Vista. But I think sometimes the enthusiasm about this great product and the excitement and the launch, people have to understand our revenue models because I think some of the revenue forecasts I've seen out there for Windows Vista in fiscal year '08 are overly aggressive, if I could say it that way, and let me kind of walk through what drives Windows revenue so people understand why I say what I'm saying," Ballmer stated.


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