The Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices has delivered a report, called “Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition,” which says that lifetime sales of the
PlayStation 3 will reach 127 million units, beating out both the Nintendo Wii, set to dwindle at a little over 100 million units, and the Microsoft-made Xbox 360. The main reason behind the predicted dominance of the Sony home console is that it will sell for a longer period than its rivals, which will be replaced by their creators for fear of becoming obsolete.
David Mercer, who is the main author behind the report and the main analyst for the videogame market for SACHD, stated that “Nintendo has done a great job with the Wii in bringing console games to new audiences. But its sales are now falling, particularly in mature markets, and its installed base will peak in 2011. Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014.”
The SACHD report is also saying there will be more than 220 million home consoles in use by the end of 2010 and that the overall number of devices in use will peak in 2011, just as the Nintendo Wii will likely be replaced and as the PlayStation 3 will become the dominant force on the market.
Of course, the expected evolution can be influenced by the launch of videogames that are exclusive to one platform and by the introduction of game changing technologies, like 3D gaming.
For a long time, Sony, through the voice of its leaders, maintained that the PlayStation 3 would be selling for 10 years before the company began to think about delivering a replacement. The console has seen a significant increase in sales after the launch of the Slim version and after the price cut, which made the device bear the same tag as the
Xbox 360 from Microsoft.
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