The Arctic May Not See a 'Tipping Point' Scenario

A large number of geologists, oceanographers and planetary scientists believe that the effects of global warming and climate change will become so severe, that the polar ice caps will be greately affected. Because it's floating on water, rather than deposited on land, the Arctic is naturally more vulnerable. The experts believe that a “tipping-point” event might occur, in which conditions suddenly become too unfavorable to allow for summer ice to form again. But new data seem to suggest a different story.

The process of ice formation is a very dynamic one, and it's subjected to a wide array of influences. In recent studies, it was, however, demonstrated that the number of factors affecting the ice sheets was even larger than initially estimated. As such, there are still phenomena that could either accelerate, or slow down the melting process. In the latest study, a Max Planck Institute (MPI) climate scientist says that, though the ices are indeed melting overall, the Arctic will not experience a tipping-point event.

When experts use this concept, they are referring to the fact that, at one point, the vicious circle that forces the Arctic into producing less and less ice each summer might go overboard. This means that, starting from a particular year onwards, the North Pole would no longer be able to produce new ice in the summer. This would naturally have disastrous consequences on the planet, affecting weather and desertification patterns, biodiversity and ecosystems around the globe, Wired reports.

This spring, the Arctic “surprised” climatologists, when its outer thin ice sheets grew very rapidly due to a cold spell over the Bering and Barents Seas. Thus, the mean ice spread of the Arctic grew to averages recorded between 1979 and 2000, but the researchers say that the new figures represent a single data point in a sea of others. The overall trend is showing that the North Pole is melting. Over the past 30 years, the maximum winter sea-ice cover dropped by six percent.

The absence of tipping points, as demonstrated by the new investigation, “doesn’t mean Greenland won’t melt away. It just means it will happen gradually,” MPI expert Dirk Notz says, noting that the phenomena affecting the Arctic almost always extend over Greenland as well.