North Pole ice will melt completely before 2050

Dec 5, 2008 15:27 GMT  ·  By

Soot, as in black and impure carbon particles that are emitted in the atmosphere as a result of the incomplete burning of fuel in car engines and factories, has now been identified as one of the main accelerators of Arctic ice meltdown, say scientists attending the UN Climate Conference in Poznan, Poland. The European Union, the US, Canada and Russia must become more aware of the impact their levels of emissions have on the North Pole, if the ice sheets are to be preserved over a few decades.  

Methane, ozone and dark carbon are the main perpetrators in this matter, as researchers say that they accelerate the melt more than sunlight or the global heating of the world's oceans. "Reductions in these pollutants would have a greater impact" than reducing the levels of emissions for the main greenhouse gases (GHG) over the next 20 years, says a report presented in Poznan.  

Although temperatures worldwide are increasing at an alarming rate, Arctic statistics show that the region accounts for twice as much warming, which has a devastating effect on the ice spreads. Unlike Antarctica, where the ice is based on an entirely-covered continent, the ice at the North Pole rests on top of the ocean, and is therefore extremely susceptible to any level of warming. Plus, it lies at sea level, where warming hits hardest.  

On the bright side of things, the three pollutants dissipate from the atmosphere much quicker than carbon dioxide, for instance, which means that measures aimed at curbing their levels would have a much quicker impact. These concerns, over the status of the ice sheets, were prompted by the fact that 2007 saw the Arctic shrinking to an unprecedented low, which fueled fears that the North Pole could melt completely during the summer before 2050.  

"Some scientists are arguing that [the Arctic Ocean] could be [ice free] in summer within the next 10 to 20 years. The question is: is all of the rapid melt of the Arctic ice in summer all due to human induced climate change or is part of it some natural cycle? We clearly have to understand it," argues Bob Watson, former head of the UN Climate Panel, who is currently the chief scientific advisor to the British Environment Ministry.