14 DAY TRIAL // Experts have tried for a long time to pinpoint the exact time and date of future solar flares, the highly energetic emissions from the Sun that threaten the Earth's atmosphere, power grids and satellites. They are known as being capable of inducing widespread devastation, and therefore finding methods of defending against it has been high on the list of priorities for many scientists. It would appear that the effort was recently successful. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center, solar flares can now be predicted with great accuracy.
The new method developed at the SWPC is so effective that it provides a three-day warning ahead of the actual solar-flare forming. While this may not seem like much, such an approach gives astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS), for example, sufficient time to evacuate the orbital facility. At their current location, they are highly exposed to the kind of radiation emanating from the Sun when it's flaring. Therefore, having 48 to 72 hours of advanced warning may allow mission managers to reposition satellites, shut them down purposefully, or take any protection measures they deem appropriate, Space Fellowship reports.
“For the first time, we can tell two to three days in advance when and where a solar flare will occur and how large it will be,” solar physicist Alysha Reinard explains. The SWPC expert also holds an appointment at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, which is a collaboration between NOAA and the University of Colorado in Boulder (UCB). She says that more details about the new prediction method will appear in the upcoming issue of the respected Astrophysical Journal Letters. The team at the Center reveals that the new tool is based mostly on a deep analysis of the twisting magnetic fields under the Sun's surface, in the days just before the flares.
“Two or three days lead time can make the difference between safeguarding the advanced technologies we depend on every day for our livelihood and security, and the catastrophic loss of these capabilities and trillions of dollars in disrupted commerce,” the SWPC Director, Thomas Bogdan, adds. “These recurring motions of the magnetic field, playing out unseen beneath the solar surface, are the clue we’ve needed to know that a large flare is coming – and when,” Reinard reveals. She adds that researchers from the National Solar Observatory have also contributed to the investigation.