14 DAY TRIAL // A new statistical estimate shows that, by closing schools, authorities could potentially prevent up to 21 percent of new swine flu cases. The investigation was conducted in eight European countries, and scientists determined that schools were one of the main ways through which the viral strain infected additional population groups, that had until then remain untouched by its effects. Details of this latest work appear in the latest issue of the open-access scientific journal BMC Infectious Diseases, e! Science News reports.
The research was conducted by analyzing the differences between infection rates recorded between average school days and weekend or holidays. The research was based on figures supplied to the team by authorities in Belgium, England, Wales, Finland, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, and The Netherlands. The research team was led by expert Niel Hens, from the Hasselt and Antwerp University, in Belgium. One of the main elements that were taken into account when compiling the numbers was the average number of contacts students had with each other, and with their teachers, during the course of an average day.
“Mathematical models of how infectious diseases spread from person to person through close contacts rely on assumptions regarding the underlying transmission process. One of these assumptions is that school closure will result in reduced exposure for children. Until now, however, the exact impact of this measure has not been proven,” the research group writes in the journal entry. When the school system is closed, contact rates are reduced by about 10 percent, the team says. And that means 10 percent less chances of the children contracting the A-H1N1 viral strain.
“If we can assume that school closure in a pandemic situation resembles school closure during holiday periods, then our results show that such a strategy would have significant impact on disease transmission, of about 21 percent. Of course, this is a conservative estimate as, during a pandemic, typical weekend activities with a strong social component such as team sports and cultural outings may not take place. On the other hand, the expected large macroeconomic costs of school closures would have to be balanced against these benefits,” the experts add.
“Children are important spreaders of many close contact pathogens due to their frequent and intimate social contacts, their general hygiene, and perhaps their increased shedding. The reduced opportunity for contact we describe here would be a great benefit in a pandemic situation,” Hens concludes.