Predicting the Next Volcanic Eruption

An international team of geophysicists from the universities of Leeds, Purdue, Indiana and Addis Ababa, found a better way of determining where volcanic eruptions are more likely to occur.

They analyzed the volcanic activity in the Afar desert in Northern Ethiopia, between 2005 and 2009 and after focusing on a rare sequence of 13 magmatic events, where molten rock got into a crack between the African and Arabian plates, they found that the place of each intrusion had a cause.

The scientists managed to prove that these intrusions were connected because every event modified the tension within the Earth's crust.

The team looked at the region around a large volcanic dyke, which erupted in the Afar desert in September 2005.

A volcanic dyke is a vertical crack that is created when the Magma blows from the underground to the surface, through openings in the surface of the earth.

The Magma - which is the name for the hot molten rock, was injected along the dyke between 2 and 9 km in depth, and modified the tension of the earth.

This way, the team had the opportunity of observing, over a four year period, the 12 smaller dykes that followed, in the same region.

They recorded the levels of tension in the ground, near the place where each dyke was intruded, and they found that I places where the tension increased, the subsequent eruptions were more likely to occur.

Dr Ian Hamling, was the study's lead author, and he completed the analysis as part of his PhD in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds.

He said that “it's been known for some time that a large earthquake has a role to play in triggering subsequent earthquakes, but until now, our knowledge of volcanic events has been based on isolated cases.

“We have demonstrated that volcanic eruptions can influence each other, [and] this will help us predict where future volcanic eruptions are likely to happen.”

Dr Hamling added that “if you look at this year's eruptions at Ejafjallajokull in Iceland, by estimating the tension in the crust at other volcanoes nearby, you could estimate whether the likelihood of them eruption has increased or decreased.

“Knowing the state of stress in this way won't tell you when an eruption will happen, but it will give a better idea of where it is most likely to occur.”

The results of this research were published in Nature Geoscience, and they are likely to help scientists to more accurately predict where volcanoes could erupt next, and also help limit the damage they cause.