14 DAY TRIAL // Michael Pachter, one of the best-known analysts watching the video game industry, believes that the PlayStation 4 from Sony will sell better than the Xbox One from Microsoft during their entire lifetimes.
He also believes that the overall performance of the two new next-gen platforms ultimately does not matter because the concept of a home console will become irrelevant in about ten years, just as digital distribution and mobile gaming become more important.
Pachter is quoted by MCV as saying during the London Games Conference that the PlayStation 4 will sell between 100 and 120 million units, while the Xbox One will deliver 90 to 110 million devices to fans.
Despite the high hopes of Nintendo, the Wii U, which has already been on sale for more than one year, will only reach a lifetime total of 30 million units.
According to the analyst, the big advantage for the Sony device is not its price, but the fact that most gamers do not want to deal with the new Kinect motion tracking system and with the policy changes that Microsoft has announced for its device.
Michael Pachter also believes that TV-focused programming might become a big advantage for the Xbox One in the long term.
Despite big sales for the next generation of hardware, console gaming is on its way to becoming obsolete.
Pachter says, “I don’t think the console market will get any bigger. The console installed base has peaked. Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years. We have expanded the market beyond the hardcore console owner. We now have ten times the audience over the internet, six times the audience over mobile.”
Developers are interested in devices that allow players to remain always connected to a game, via either an online or a mobile app.