Pakistan Might Be Jolted by Powerful Earthquakes for Another 50 Years

With a magnitude of 7.6, reported by the U.S. Geological Survey, and of 7.8 reported by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Pakistan earthquake on October claimed 87,000 lives and left other 3.3 million persons without homes, being one of the most devastating ever.

It was followed by dozens of aftershocks which contributed to the destruction of the area and spread panic among the population.

Earthquakes and active faults in northern Pakistan and adjacent parts of India and Afghanistan are the direct result of the Indian plate moving northward at a rate of about 40 mm/yr and colliding with the Eurasian one. This collision is causing uplift and is contributing to the Himalayan peaks.

But a Colorado University researcher, Roger Bilham, specialized in the earthquakes from this area, warns that the sequence of high magnitude earthquakes is not over, and it's likely that seismic motions with magnitudes over 8 will take place.

The seismologist studied the seismic activity for a 500 year period and found that a series of seismic events between 1501 and 1555, the most severe being one which took place in 1555, might happen again in the 2005-2055 interval.

"From what we know of Kashmir's history, there may well be a sequence of earthquakes spread over the next 50 years," Roger Bilham told the BBC.

"I would think that the present earthquake would be equivalent to the one in 1501 which means that there exists a possibility of another major slip in Kashmir's future," the seismologist added.

"Our study basically showed that there were four places that could have a magnitude 8.2 earthquake or more."

Bilham advises the Pakistani government to provide an adequate protection for the next buildings that will be built. Such protection can be achieved by employing an anti-seismic design which takes into account the occurrence of high magnitude earthquakes.