14 DAY TRIAL // Even with the supposedly weakening demand in Europe, 2010 is already looking as though it will turn out to be significantly more favorable for the IT industry than the last two. In late 2009, with the economic crisis expected to ease, IDC had already predicted an improvement. To be more specific, IDC believed that the total PC shipments for the ongoing year would increase, compared to 2009, by 10.3%.
Considering that 2008 and 2009 were, more or less, disastrous for the IT market in general, even this much was seen as a great improvement. However, once again fate shows that predictions should not be trusted overmuch, as there is always room for the unexpected. Fortunately, this time around, the unexpected is not the equivalent of disaster.
Apparently, the PC market is recovering much more rapidly than it was initially thought. Based on the good performance in Q1 and Q2, IDC now forecasts that the overall shipments will grow by 19.8%. Both mature and emerging markets have, supposedly, been performing admirably, with the latter even boasting an on-year improvement of 37% during the first three months of 2010. Desktop sales should grow by over 8%, to 137.6 million, whereas laptops will reach 217.2 million units (28.6% increase) by the end of December. As for 2011 and 2012, shipments should jump by 14.4% and 12.8%, respectively.
"Beyond continuing with the market recovery, 2010 will be a year filled with new formulations on what constitutes the PC experience," said Jay Chou, research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "New devices such as e-readers and media tablets will pose disruptive challenges to conventional usage models while opening up intriguing possibilities in consumer and mobile business spaces. Aside from brute computing power, the value proposition of the PC will be increasingly measured by the flexibility with which it can meet the demands of content creation and content consumption as well as achieving optimal portability."